Publications by A.E. Ogden

Adapter l’aménagement forestier durable aux changements climatiques : cadre d’évaluation de la vulnérabilité et d’intégration des mesures d’adaptation dans le processus décisionnel.

Wed, 13 Mar 2013

Les changements climatiques auront, entre autres, des répercussions sur les processus décisionnels et l’élaboration des politiques, faisant en sorte que de nouvelles informations seront requises pour les guider. Une méthodologie reconnue, l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité, fournit une part de cette nouvelle information qui guidera les décideurs chargés de l’adaptation aux changements climatiques. Considérant le caractère global des changements climatiques, il est nécessaire que les évaluations considèrent simultanément l’étendue des impacts des changements climatiques sur les forêts et les objectifs d’aménagement durable. Par ailleurs, la lenteur de croissance des arbres dicte la perspective à laquelle l’aménagement forestier est envisagé. Cette réalité, jumelée aux changements prévus du climat canadien dans les 100 prochaines années, implique l’adoption d’une perspective à long terme des impacts des changements climatiques si l’on veut guider dès maintenant les décisions en aménagement forestier. Une part d’incertitude demeure cependant quand aux impacts attendus des changements climatiques. Dans l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité, on reconnaît cette ncertitude; elle est d’ailleurs intégrée dans l’élaboration des scénarios préparés à partir des descriptions du futur établies à partir de documentation scientifique, de modélisation et d’avis d’experts. L’évolution continuelle du climat va exiger une évaluation et une amélioration continue de la capacité d’adaptation des systèmes d’aménagement forestier, des aménagistes forestiers et des organisations concernées par l’aménagement, exigences que les évaluations de la vulnérabilité sont en mesure de satisfaire. Ce document présente un cadre d’évaluation de la vulnérabilité de l’aménagement forestier durable aux changements climatiques au Canada et montre comment lier les résultats de ces évaluations à un processus d’adaptation qui s’intègre dans le processus décisionnel d’aménagement forestier. Avec l’aide de ce cadre, les aménagistes forestiers canadiens comprendront mieux où, quand et comment les impacts potentiels des changements climatiques affecteront les objectifs d’aménagement forestier durable et leur capacité de s’adapter aux impacts actuels et à venir. Le cadre décrit aussi un processus décisionnel de gestion adaptative dans lequel 1) l’information disponible sur les sources de vulnérabilité sert de point de départ à la mise en oeuvre des mesures d’adaptation, 2) l’état du système est suivi après la mise en oeuvre des mesures d’adaptation et 3) les vulnérabilités et les besoins en matière d’adaptation font l’objet d’examens réguliers et systématiques.

Adapting sustainable forest management to climate change: a framework for assessing vulnerability and mainstreaming adaptation into decision making.

Wed, 13 Mar 2013

One of the consequences of climate change is that new kinds of information will be needed to support policy- and decision making. The vulnerability approach is an established methodology for providing information in a form that supports policy- and decision making in the context of adapting to climate change. For example, climate change is ubiquitous, so approaches to assessment are needed that simultaneously consider the breadth of impacts both on forests and on sustainable forest management objectives. In addition, the long growth cycles of trees mean that forest management is inherently a long-term undertaking. This, combined with the fact that Canada’s climate could change significantly in the next 100 years, means that a long-term view of climate change impacts is needed in order to make correct forest management decisions today. There is, however, uncertainty about future climate change impacts. Vulnerability assessments acknowledge and address uncertainty through a process of scenario construction. Typically, such a process results in multiple stories of the future, which are informed by a combination of science, modeling, and expert judgment. Climate change will have implications for the capacity of forest managers, forest management organizations, and forest management systems to adapt. Vulnerability approaches incorporate assessments of adaptive capacity. This document presents a framework for assessing the vulnerability of sustainable forest management in Canada to climate change and linking the results of vulnerability assessment to an adaptation process that is integrated into forest management decision making. The framework will enable Canadian forest managers to better understand the location, timing, and magnitude of potential climate change impacts on sustainable forest management objectives and their capacity to adapt to current and future impacts. The framework also describes a process for structured, adaptive management decision making in which information about sources of vulnerability is used to implement adaptation actions, the state of the system after adaptation is monitored, and vulnerabilities and adaptation requirements are regularly and systematically re-examined.

Adaptive capacity of forest management systems on publicly owned forest landscapes in Canada.

Thu, 29 Sep 2011

The degree to which Canadian forest management policies, institutions, and other factors either support or hinder the development of climate change adaptive capacity is discussed. The analysis is based on discussions with government and industry forest managers across Canada. Managers feel that they have the tools and the technical capability to successfully adapt. However, while these tools and abilities are available to forest managers, they are not always utilized due to policy barriers or lack of resources. Also, the adaptive capacity requirements of forest managers may be increasing as a result of global warming, as well as broader social, economic, and market trends. A model of “embedded science,”in which scientists closely interact with forest managers in planning exercises leads to increased adaptive capacity. Some institutions, such as forest certification, have the potential for providing a framework for determining adaptation and adaptive capacity requirements. However, they will need to be modified in order to realize that potential. Forest management policy generally supports adaptation, but may limit the implementation of adaptation options in cases where the required innovation lies far outside of business-as-usual activities. Forest management policy needs to become more flexible and forward-looking, focusing on expected future outcomes under potentially different conditions, while at the same time acknowledging the uncertainty in expected outcomes. Reforming existing forest tenure arrangements and providing forest managers with more flexibility and local autonomy will allow more timely adaptation to climate change as well as other sources of change.

Sustainability of boreal forests and forestry in a changing environment

Thu, 20 Jan 2011

Climate change and forest management in Canada: impacts, adaptive capacity and adaptation options. A state of knowledge report.

Mon, 19 Apr 2010

Vulnerability of Canada's tree species to climate change and management options for adaptation: an overview for policy makers and practitioners

Fri, 30 Oct 2009

Over the next several decades, the climate in Canadian forests will shift northward at a rate that will likely exceed the ability of individual tree species to migrate. While most tree species can migrate naturally up to a few hundred metres per year via seed dispersal, the climatic conditions in which each species thrives may move north by several thousand metres per year. Canada’s forests are home to well over 100 species of trees, of which 93 are commercially important. Canada’s tree species are vulnerable to climate change because trees are sensitive to climate, and there is now little doubt that significant climate change will continue over the next century. In fact, the effects of climate change on tree species are already occurring. For example, drought has caused significant mortality of aspen trees in the southern boreal forest of Alberta and Saskatchewan, and warmer winters have contributed to a mountain pine beetle epidemic that is expected to kill more than three-quarters of the pine volume in British Columbia by 2015. Although it is expected that the overall net effect of climate change on commercially important tree species in Canada will be negative, a changing climate may also increase tree growth in some areas. Adaptation to climate change by modifying forest management policies and practices has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of tree species to climate change. However, before the process of adaptation can begin, it is necessary to understand how and where tree species are vulnerable, and to identify viable adaptation options.

The purpose of this report is to provide a systematic national assessment of: tree species vulnerability to climatic change; management implications and options; and knowledge gaps in our understanding of both species vulnerability and adaptation.

Vulnérabilité des arbres du Canada aux changements climatiques et propositions de mesures visant leur adatation : un aperçu destiné aux décideurs et aux intervenants du monde forestier

Fri, 30 Oct 2009

Climate change and Canada's forests: from impacts to adaptation

Thu, 09 Jul 2009

Climate change is already affecting Canada’s forests. Current visible effects include changes in the frequency and severity of disturbances (such as fires, drought, severe storms, and damaging insect and disease attacks): other less visible changes such as change in the timing of spring bud burst are also underway. One of the consequences of future climate change will be further increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and disturbances. Changes in productivity, species composition, and age- class distribution are also expected. Moisture and temperature are key factors affecting productivity. Productivity is likely to decrease in areas that are now or will become drier; productivity is expected to increase (at least in the near term) in northern areas that are currently limited by cold temperatures. An important consideration, however, is that genotypes tend to be finely adapted to local climates and potential productivity gains may not be realized if forest managers don’t match genotypes to suitable climates. A higher percentage of the forests will be in younger age classes, and the frequency of early succession species and species adapted to disturbance will increase. Climatically suitable habitats for most species will move northward and will increase in elevation but the actual movement of species will lag behind the rate of movement of climatic niches. Climate change has implications for both current and future timber supply. The net impact of climate change on timber supply will vary from location to location. The recent mountain pine beetle event shows that climate-related factors can have dramatic effects on timber supply in a relatively short time period. Climate change will impact harvest operations. A significant portion of the harvest in Canada occurs in the winter when the ground is frozen. Harvesting on frozen ground allows for access to wetlands, reduces soil disturbance, and decreases costs of delivered wood. The magnitudes of change in climate that will be faced by Canada’s forests and forest management sector and the consequent scale of expected impacts have no historical analogue. Canada’s forest sector will need to adapt and it will need to do so without the benefit of prior experience. Forest managers can expect the unexpected and they can expect that change will be ongoing and unrelenting. Some general recommendations for beginning to address climate change in Canada’s forest sector include enhancing the capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change at various scales; increasing resources to monitor the impacts of climate change; increasing resources for impacts and adaptation science; reviewing forest policies, forest planning, forest management approaches, and institutions to assess our ability to achieve social objectives under climate change; embedding principles of risk management and adaptive management into forest management; and maintaining or improving the capacity for communicating, networking, and information sharing with the Canadian public and within the forest sector.

Les changements climatiques et les forêts du Canada : des impacts à l'adaptation

Thu, 09 Jul 2009